My theory on the NY condo crash
For what it's worth, I have built a theory about why the Yankees pitcher and his 26 year old instructor crashed into the condo on Manhattan.
He was a very low-time pilot - brand new in fact. His instructor was competent, but young, and not an urban pilot. They were flying into one of the busiest, tightest stretches of VFR flight space in the country. (VFR partially meaning that you don't have any oversight by the FAA - Visual Flight Rules: you're on your own and responsible for your own traffic separation.)
They were sightseeing up the river with building tops above them - they were only at 700 feet. And they were flying rapidly toward the controlled airspace for LaGuardia. It was just like a box canyon. They initiated - as I'm sure they planned - a 180 degree turn to head back down river. They were going remarkably slow at the time the turn began - about 110 miles per hour. This is where I think stuff got off track.
My suspicion is that the instructor was looking at maps and/or instruments, maybe punching something into the big GPS moving map built into the airplane. The turn would have to be very tight, and I would imagine it got tighter as Lidle saw the buildings rapidly getting bigger.
Tight turns at slow speed are where lots of accidents happen. The wing stalls at a much higher speed in a turn. Steeper the turn, higher the stall speed. I'm guessing the instructor looked up and realized how slow and how tight they were turning, saw Lidle was now losing altitude, and told him to level out, figuring flying between buildings illegally was better than stalling.
The problem in a steep turn, of course, is you can't see through the wing that's tilted up to know what you're near. I'm guessing they hurriedly rolled out to level, there was the building, and that was that.
My friend Stockton's theory is similar, but he imagines the instructor grabbed the controls, with the pitcher and his incredibly strong pitching arm, turning left, and the instructor turning right, thus locking into a no-turn situation.
From the time the turn started to the end of the flight was seconds. Maybe ten. Tension, testosterone, and hard decisions to be made by two take-control guys.
Unless something new turns up, that is my theory.
He was a very low-time pilot - brand new in fact. His instructor was competent, but young, and not an urban pilot. They were flying into one of the busiest, tightest stretches of VFR flight space in the country. (VFR partially meaning that you don't have any oversight by the FAA - Visual Flight Rules: you're on your own and responsible for your own traffic separation.)
They were sightseeing up the river with building tops above them - they were only at 700 feet. And they were flying rapidly toward the controlled airspace for LaGuardia. It was just like a box canyon. They initiated - as I'm sure they planned - a 180 degree turn to head back down river. They were going remarkably slow at the time the turn began - about 110 miles per hour. This is where I think stuff got off track.
My suspicion is that the instructor was looking at maps and/or instruments, maybe punching something into the big GPS moving map built into the airplane. The turn would have to be very tight, and I would imagine it got tighter as Lidle saw the buildings rapidly getting bigger.
Tight turns at slow speed are where lots of accidents happen. The wing stalls at a much higher speed in a turn. Steeper the turn, higher the stall speed. I'm guessing the instructor looked up and realized how slow and how tight they were turning, saw Lidle was now losing altitude, and told him to level out, figuring flying between buildings illegally was better than stalling.
The problem in a steep turn, of course, is you can't see through the wing that's tilted up to know what you're near. I'm guessing they hurriedly rolled out to level, there was the building, and that was that.
My friend Stockton's theory is similar, but he imagines the instructor grabbed the controls, with the pitcher and his incredibly strong pitching arm, turning left, and the instructor turning right, thus locking into a no-turn situation.
From the time the turn started to the end of the flight was seconds. Maybe ten. Tension, testosterone, and hard decisions to be made by two take-control guys.
Unless something new turns up, that is my theory.
posted by C at 12:10 PM
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